Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on irrigation scheme productivity and sustainability in the Linthipe River Catchment, Malawi. Using resilience and adaptation theory, it addresses concerns over climate variability, specifically erratic rainfall and rising temperatures. A quantitative research design was adopted using historical climate datasets (1960–2023), CMIP5 regional climate models, and the CROPWAT model to estimate crop water requirements (CWR). Temperature and rainfall were projected to 2050 using SDSM 4.2 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The Mann-Kendall trend test (5% significance level) and Sen's slope estimator assessed trends in both historical and projected datasets. Historical analysis revealed significant upward trends in minimum and maximum temperatures (0.002°C/year and 0.0014°C/year, respectively), with projections accelerating to 0.014°C/year and 0.065°C/year by 2050. Rainfall showed no significant historical trend, while projections indicate a slight increase of 0.014 mm/year. CWR for maize, rice, and sugarcane are projected to rise by 7–10% by 2040–2050. A declining water level trend at Malapa station signals growing water stress. Three irrigation schemes, Lifuwu, Lifidzi, and Chikwawa, exhibited variable productivity linked to infrastructure condition and institutional support. Despite challenges, irrigated farming remains viable to 2050 and is essential for food security. The study highlights that sustainability depends on climate-smart practices, improved infrastructure, integrated water management, and policy reforms tailored to Malawi's agricultural context.

Publication status

Published - 2026