Abstract

The World Health Organization (WHO) predicted that unless effective measures were taken in Africa, as many as 44 million people would be infected by the COVID-19 virus with up to 190,000 fatalities in the first year alone. The Zimbabwean government tasked public and private institutions to produce non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such alcohol-based hand sanitizers (ABHS) alongside implementing social distancing measures such as quarantining and lockdowns as tools to prevent community transmission. The use of non-pharmaceuitical interventions such as handsanitizers and facemasks and an significant influx of returning residents especially those that came through undesignated entry point whose COVID-19 status is unknown, among other factors, have made it difficult to estimate epidemiological parameters for the COVID-19 pandemic in Zimbabwe. This chapter therefore examines the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic using an extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (e-SEIR) model under these conditions of uncertainty in Zimbabwe. Computer simulations of different scenarios illustrate that quarantine and treatment reduce infection rate and fatalities by a significant margin. To slow the spread of COVID-19, considerable attention should also be devoted to strengthening contact tracing and detection of people suspected of being exposed.

Original language	en
Pages (from-to)	125-145
Publication status	Published - 2023