• icon+265(0)111 624 222
  • iconresearch@unima.ac.mw
  • iconChirunga-Zomba, Malawi

Are you a UNIMA researcher? Login

Exploring Linkages Between Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Conventional Flood Forecasting in the Aftermath of Tropical Cyclone Idai in Chikwawa, Malawi


Author(s) : Cosmo Ngongondo, Miriam Dalitso Kalanda-Joshua, Maurice Monjerezi, Felistus Chipungu, Raymond Kasei, Charles Malidadi
Sustainable Development Goals Series

Abstract


This study explores links between IKS and climate science for flood forecasting in a flood-prone area, affected by Tropical Cyclone Idai, in Malawi. Rural communities’ perceptions of flood trends and risks were collected using household interviews (n = 60), key informant interviews (n = 10) and mixed gender focus group discussions in Chikwawa District. Flood frequency analysis was performed using rainfall and discharge data from nearby weather stations and Mwanza and Shire Rivers. There is a decline in localised rainfall, but increase in flooding from rainfall in upstream catchment. Both communities highlighted reliable IKS (flora, fauna and atmospheric observations) used before the onset of and during the rainfall events for flooding forecasts. However, most of the IK indicators are threatened by environmental degradation and may not be suited to forecasts of patterns or intensity of rainfall at large spatial and temporal scales, such as floods from rainfall in upstream catchment. Therefore, IK indicators may not provide sufficient foreknowledge to respond to climate events such as cyclones. Scientific climate knowledge may provide forecasts at both small and large spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, integration of contextualised IK and scientific climate knowledge can produce robust flood forecasts in the poorly resourced settings.


Original language en
Pages (from-to) 207-226
Publication status Published - 2021

Access document

10.1007/978-3-030-74262-1_14

License

https://www.springer.com/tdm
    1. . .
      https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-015-1416-6
    2. R Barbour (2008). .
      Barbour, R. (2008). Introducing qualitative research: A student guide to the craft of doing qualitative research. SAGE.
    3. F Berkes (2012). .
      https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203123843
    4. J Brannen (1992). .
      Brannen, J. (1992). Combining qualitative and quantitative approaches: An overview. In J. Brannen (Ed.), Mixing methods: Qualitative and quantitative research. Aldershop.
    5. LB Chang’a (2010). Journal of Geography and Regional Planning, Vol. 3, (4), pp. 66.
      Chang’a, L. B., Yanda, P. Z., & Ngana, J. (2010). Indigenous knowledge in seasonal rainfall prediction in Tanzania: A case of the South-Western Highland of Tanzania. Journal of Geography and Regional Planning, 3(4), 66–72.
    6. N Chanza (2017). .
      Chanza, N., & Mafongoya, P. L. (2017). Indigenous-based climate science from the Zimbabwean experience: From impact identification, mitigation and adaptation. In P. L. Mafongoya & O. C. Ajayi (Eds.), Indigenous knowledge systems and climate change management in Africa. Wageningen.
    7. . .
      DODMA. (2013). National profile of disasters in Malawi, 1946–2013 - excel database. Lilongwe. Department of Disaster Management Affairs.
    8. Environmental Affairs Department (2002). .
      Environmental Affairs Department. (2002). Initial national communication under the United Nations framework convention on climate change. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Affairs.
    9. . .
      Finucane, M. (2009). Why science alone won’t solve the climate crisis: Managing the climate risks in the Pacific. Asia Pacific Issues, 89, 1–8.
    10. . .
      https://doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2018/4426
    11. GOM (2015). .
      GOM. (2015). Malawi 2015 floods post disaster needs assessment report. Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA).
    12. GOM (2017). .
      GOM. (2017). National disaster recovery framework: Building back a disaster-affected Malawi better and safer. Department of Disaster Management Affairs.
    13. GOM (2019). .
      GOM. (2019). Malawi 2019 floods post disaster needs assessment (PDNA). Office of the President and Cabinet.
    14. M Hennink (2011). .
      Hennink, M., Hutter, I., & Bailey, A. (2011). Qualitative research methods. SAGE Publications Inc.
    15. IPCC (2007). .
      IPCC. (2007). Summary for policymakers, fourth assessment report (AR4). Cambridge University Press.
    16. . .
      IPCC. (2010). Review of the IPCC Processes and Procedures, report by the InterAcademy Council (IPCC-XXXII/Doc. 7). Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
    17. R Joshua (2012). Journal of Emerging Trends in Education Research and Policy Studies, Vol. 3, pp. 561.
      Joshua, R., Dominic, M., Doreen, T., & Elias, R. (2012). Weather forecasting and indigenous knowledge systems in Chimanimani District of Manicaland, Zimbabwe. Journal of Emerging Trends in Education Research and Policy Studies, 3, 561–566.
    18. . .
      https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v8i3.255
    19. . .
      Joshua, M., Ngongondo, C., Monjerezi, M., Chipungu, F., Malidadi, C. (2017). Relevance of indigenous knowledge in weather and climate forecasts for agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change in Malawi – Chapter 9 In: Mafongoya, P. L. & Ajayi, O. C. (eds) (2017) Indigenous knowledge systems and climate change management in Africa. CTA, Wageningen, The Netherlands, pp 316.
    20. . .
      https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.08.001
    21. R Kalinga-Chirwa (2011). Journal of Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Vol. 36, (14), pp. 887.
      https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.07.053
    22. R Kangalawe (2011). Natural Resources, Vol. 2, pp. 2012.
      https://doi.org/10.4236/nr.2011.24027
    23. RA Kasei (2019). Journal of the British Academy, Vol. 7, (s2), pp. 183.
      https://doi.org/10.5871/jba/007s2.183
    24. AL Kijazi (2013). Journal of Geography and Regional Planning, Vol. 6, (7), pp. 274.
      https://doi.org/10.5897/JGRP2013.0386
    25. . .
      Kipkorir, E., Mugalavai, E., & Songok, C. (2010). Integrating indigenous and scientific knowledge systems on seasonal rainfall characteristics prediction and utilization. J. Kenya Science Technology and Innovation, 2,19–29.
    26. MG Kendall (1975). .
      Kendall, M. G. (1975). Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin.
    27. JH Kotir (2011). Environment, Development and Sustainability, Vol. 13, pp. 587.
      https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-010-9278-0
    28. HB Mann (1945). Econometrica, Vol. 13, pp. 245.
      https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
    29. . .
      Mafongoya, P. L. & Ajayi, O. C. (2017). Indigenous knowledge systems and climate change management in Africa. CTA, Wageningen, The Netherlands, pp 316.
    30. PL Mafongoya (2017). .
      Mafongoya, P. L., Jiri, O., Mubaya, C. P., & Mafongoya, O. (2017). Using indigenous knowledge for seasonal quality prediction in managing climate risk in sub-Saharan Africa. In P. L. Mafongoya & O. C. Ajayi (Eds.), Indigenous knowledge systems and climate change management in Africa. CTA.
    31. PL Mafongoya (2017). .
      Mafongoya, P. L., & Jiri, O. C. (2017a). Indigenous knowledge and climate change: Overview and basic propositions. In P. L. Mafongoya & O. C. Ajayi (Eds.), Indigenous knowledge systems and climate change management in Africa.
    32. PL Mafongoya (2017). .
      Mafongoya, P. L., & Jiri, O. C. (2017b). Indigenous knowledge systems: Their history, development over time and role in sustainable development and climate change management. In P. L. Mafongoya & O. C. Ajayi (Eds.), Indigenous knowledge systems and climate change management in Africa. CTA.
    33. . .
      McSweeney, C., New, M. & Lizcano, G. (2008). UNDP climate change country profiles: Malawi. Retrieved from http://countryprofiles.geog.ox.ac.uk/index.html?country=Malawi&d1=Reports. Accessed 29 June 2012.
    34. E Makwara (2013). Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, Vol. 2, (1), pp. 98.
      Makwara, E. (2013). Indigenous knowledge systems and modern weather forecasting: Exploring the linkages. Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 2(1), 98–141.
    35. CP Mubaya (2017). .
      Mubaya, C. P., Mafongoya, P. L., Jiri, O., Mafongoya, O., & Gwenzi, J. (2017). Seasonal climate prediction in Zimbabwe using indigenous knowledge systems. In P. L. Mafongoya & O. C. Ajayi (Eds.), Indigenous knowledge systems and climate change management in Africa. CTA.
    36. D Nakashima (2012). .
      Nakashima, D., Galloway, M., Thulstrup, H., Ramos, C., & Rubis, J. (2012). Weathering uncertainty: Traditional knowledge for climate change assessment and adaptation. UNESCO and UNU.
    37. National Statistical Office (NSO) (2018). .
      National Statistical Office (NSO). (2018). Malawi population and housing census. Government of Malawi.
    38. CS Ngongondo (2011). Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, Vol. 25, pp. 939.
      https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-011-0480-x
    39. . .
      Ngongondo, C., Tallaksen, L. M. & Xu, C.-Y. (2014). Growing season length and rainfall extremes analysis in Malawi. Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions - Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014, Montpellier. IAHS Press, 361–366.
    40. . .
      https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0413-0
    41. C Ngongondo (2015). Quaternary International, Vol. 369, pp. 7.
      https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2014.06.028
    42. . .
      https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-08519-4
    43. T Nichols (2004). Arctic, Vol. 57, pp. 68.
      https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic484
    44. . .
      https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4dfe
    45. . .
      https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4dfe
    46. EC Nkomwa (2014). Journal of Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Vol. 67-69, pp. 164.
      https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2013.10.002
    47. A Nyong (2007). Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 12, (5), pp. 787.
      https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-007-9099-0
    48. . .
      Pareek, A., & Trivedi, P. (2011). Cultural values and indigenous knowledge of climate change and disaster prediction in Rajasthan India. Indian Journal of Traditional Knowledge, 10, 183–189.
    49. R Rengalakshmi (2007). .
      Rengalakshmi, R. (2007). Localized climate forecasting system: Seasonal climate and weather prediction for farm-level decision-making. In M. V. K. Sivakumar & J. Hansen (Eds.), Climate prediction and agriculture: Advances and challenges. Springer-Verlag.
    50. C Roncoli (2009). Climatic Change, Vol. 92, pp. 433.
      https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9445-6
    51. K Shoko (2012). Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, Vol. 14, pp. 1520.
      Shoko, K. (2012). Indigenous weather forecasting systems: A case study of the biotic weather forecasting indicators for wards 12 and 13 in Mberengwa district Zimbabwe. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, 14, 1520–5509.
    52. . .
      Shukurat, A., Kolapo, O., & Nnadozie, O. (2012). Traditional capacity for weather forecast, variability and coping strategies in the front-line states of Nigeria. Agricultural Science, 3625–3630.
    53. C Sutcliffe (2016). Reg Environ Change, Vol. 16, pp. 1215.
      https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0842
    54. UNECA (2015). .
      UNECA. (2015). Assessment report on mainstreaming and implementing disaster risk reduction measures in Malawi. United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA).
    55. KP Whyte (2013). Ecological Processes, Vol. 2, pp. 2.
      https://doi.org/10.1186/2192-1709-2-7
    56. World Bank (2017). .
      World Bank. (2017). National resilience strategy for Malawi. World Bank.
    57. . .
      World Bank. (2019). Implementation completion and results report of the Malawi: Shire River Basin Management Program (Phase-I) Project. Report Number CR00004750.
    58. . .
      WMO (World Meteorological Organisation). (1988). Analysing long time series of hydrological data with respect to climate variability and change. WCAP-3, WMO/TD no. 224, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland.
    59. (2010). .
      Ziervogel, G., & Opere, A. (Eds.). (2010). Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal weather forecasts in the agricultural sector (Weather Change Adaptation in Africa learning paper series). International Development Research Centre.
    60. . .
      Zhang, X., & Yang, F. (2004). RClimDex (1.0) User Guide. Climate Research Branch, Environment Canada, Downs view Ontario, Canada.

Access document

10.1007/978-3-030-74262-1_14

License

https://www.springer.com/tdm