Abstract

The relationship between climate and malaria incidence is complex, with climate change influencing the epidemiological patterns of malaria in different regions. Understanding the nature of this relationship is essential for effective malaria programming, especially in the context of changing climate conditions. Modeling the relationship between climate factors and malaria incidence can help guide malaria control interventions based on current and projected climate data. It also serves as a basis for establishing malaria early warning systems to aid resource planning. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between climate factors, account for delayed climate effects, and evaluate the impact of indoor residue spray (IRS) intervention on malaria incidence. Monthly malaria incidence data were obtained from the national malaria control program, while climate data were collected from the Department of Meteorological Services and Climate Change in Mangochi district, Malawi. Two methods were employed: a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the nature of the relationship between climate variables and malaria incidence, and segmented regression to assess the impact of the IRS intervention while accounting for lagged climate effects and seasonal trends. The results revealed an immediate peak in malaria risk following extreme weather conditions, highlighting the importance of short-term effects of climate. The risk of malaria immediately doubles with extreme rains and humidity compared to average weather conditions. Notably, an immediate peak in malaria incidence was observed following exposure to all climatic factors, and the effects continued to manifest for up to three months (0-to-2-month lag). This suggests that previous climate conditions play a critical role in predicting current and future malaria incidence. In conclusion, the findings highlight the importance of short lags and the potential for immediate outbreaks following exposure to climatic factors. Incorporating these findings into malaria programming and control efforts can enhance the effectiveness of interventions and contribute to the development of proactive strategies to reduce the burden of malaria in the context of a changing climate.

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School	: School of Natural and Applied Sciences
Issued Date	: 2023

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