Abstract

Restrictions that have been put in place to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic have led to reduced economic activity and increased unemployment. These unintended consequences are likely to have long-term effects on economies especially in Sub-Saharan Africa where the resilience of workers in the labour market is already weak. This study therefore, analyses labour market transitions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi. Specifically, the study interrogates, the drivers of exit of participants, from the labour market into permanent or temporary unemployment. In addition, the study investigates gender differentials and employment type differentials with regard to risk of exiting the labour market. To achieve these objectives; use was made of data on a sample of 2,337 households from a High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19 in Malawi collected monthly from May 2020 to April 2021 by the National Statistical Office of Malawi. This data was chosen since it made it possible to follow the trajectory of men and women in the labour market since the exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic. Analytically, both non-parametric and parametric survival analysis models were used. The survival analysis models used included the Kaplan Meier and Nelson-Aalen nonparametric estimators and the Cox proportional regression. The results indicated that the expected hazard is 98% higher in women compared to men, and those with primary education risk highly (at 87%) than those with secondary (77.1%) and tertiary education (74.8%). Manufacturing sector was found to have a higher hazard risk (at 95.8% ) followed by the education sector (at 59.5%). The expected hazard for individuals that tested positive for Covid-19 was 42.9% higher compared to individuals that tested negative for Covid-19. Based on these results, the paper has identified the groups at risk and recommended effective outreach strategies to provide integrated, comprehensive and well targeted support.

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School	: School of Law, Economics and Government
Issued Date	: 2022

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